Month: October 2006

You know what would be useful and doesn’t exist? An rss feed (or similar) for UN Security Council resolutions. Anybody found one hiding somewhere in a corner of the internet?

Underneath the media hysteria, [Ella-p](http://ella-p.livejournal.com/675361.html) links to a few polls suggesting Russians aren’t really all that passionate in their loathing for Georgians. All these figures predate the current scuffle. They also conflict with my own experience of Russia, which is of a pretty widespread loathing of anybody from the Caucasus.

Firstly, [two](http://bd.fom.ru/report/cat/frontier/border/Gruzia/tb040309) [polls](http://bd.fom.ru/report/cat/frontier/border/Gruzia/tb062413) on opinions of Georgia:

So opinions of Georgia have worsened over the time Saakashvili has been president, but not to any truly terrible levels.

[Another poll](http://bd.fom.ru/report/cat/frontier/border/Gruzia/gruz_abkhaz_russ/tb063010) concerns attitudes to Abkhazia. Throughout several questions, the same small majority are in favour of keeping Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia (51%), supporting independence for Abkhazia (53%), and welcoming Abkhazia as part of Russia, if requested (54%). The rest are divided between a good 20-30% who support the opposite position, and a large number who didn’t answer.

Disclaimer: I know nothing about polls, and my Russian is ropey enough that I’ve probably misunderstood some of them. If you’re interested, look at the “Public Opinion Foundation”: [other polling data on Georgia](http://bd.fom.ru/cat/frontier/border/Gruzia/), or the English-language section.

In one of those ‘far more comprehensive than you’d ever want’ posts, here is a little background to the current dispute between Russia and Georgia. Things haven’t been quite this heated before, but all the elements have been there for a while. There’s the political grandstanding by both Putin and Saakashvili, partly animated by personal dislike but mostly a strategy to enhance their domestic popularity. Then there are the plausible underlying causes: the Russian soldiers who are in Georgia and helping separatists, and the overall story of Georgia’s attempt to get out from under Russia’s thumb.

A war of words

How much of this is just about looking good on TV? A pretty huge amount, I’d say. Saakashvili’s persona is based on being unremittingly pro-Western – look at how he has [presented](http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/2/d9286bf3-6e9a-4f29-98e3-cb44e734c286.html) defiance of Russia as his personal contribution to politics:

“

…we’re no longer the country we were two or three years ago. We’re not afraid of anything and we won’t let anything upset us

”

Saakashvili loves political grandstanding against Russia. He has loudly accused Russia of [arming separatists](http://mosnews.com/news/2005/09/12/saakashvili.shtml), [sabotaging gas pipelines](http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/1/207cd3c0-56a4-4b43-bc0b-9f929ca75c79.html) to leave Georgia without winter fuel, even [involvement in kidnapping a Georgian child](http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/8/59c9a015-0ba7-43a1-95c5-99111c8a18f7.html). In the UN, he has [hinted](http://mosnews.com/news/2005/09/19/saakashvili.shtml) about Russian aims of annexing Georgia.

There’s a kernel of truth in a lot of this rhetoric, but Saakashvili is saying it all so publicly for his own political interests.

There’s been almost as much verbal nastiness on the Russian side. Some of it is personal tension between Putin and Saakashvili. Putin has, for instance, [blamed](http://en.rian.ru/russia/20060131/43264624.html) a previous crisis on “

the ability of individual political figures in Georgia to respond adequately to the situation in the relations

“. Then there’s the time a Russian Foreign Ministry official seemingly [encouraged assassination of Saakashvili](http://mosnews.com/news/2006/02/21/killsaakashvili.shtml)

I’d count Russia’s [ban of Georgian wine](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Russian_ban_of_Moldovan_and_Georgian_wines) and mineral water, and their occasional [refusals to issue visas to Georgians](http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/2/d9286bf3-6e9a-4f29-98e3-cb44e734c286.html), in this category of ‘political grandstanding’. They aren’t insignificant (wine and water are two of Georgia’s main exports, and the million or so Georgian workers in Russia need their visas), but the measures were obviously driven by politics rather than necessity.

The unwanted soldiers

Then we get onto the underlying issues – and yes, it’s military and it’s ethnic. It’s about the Georgian separatist republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, an about the unwanted Russian troops still stationed in Georgia. Some of the troops are (not exactly neutral) ‘peacekeepers’ in the separatist regions. Others are loitering on old Soviet bases: everybody agrees they have to go at some point, but Russia is dragging its feet and trying to keep them in Georgia for another few years.

Saakashvili certainly isn’t the only Georgian to be angry about all this, but he has gone particularly far in trying to change it. There are fairly frequent military skirmishes, particularly significant ones being in South Ossetia in August 2004 (causing a row with Russia), and this summer the [Kodori gorge](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/5221436.stm) of Abkhazia (causing – you guessed it – a row with Russia)

Georgia has also tried arresting the Russian soldiers before. I imagine this is partly to nudge Russia towards withdrawing them, partly for domestic political reasons, maybe even because they were breaking the law. I can’t find any for spying until recently, though – mostly they’ve been about [smuggling](http://mosnews.com/news/2005/09/30/peacekeepersheld.shtml) and [visa irregularities](http://mosnews.com/news/2006/02/01/peacekeepers.shtml). Georgian police even had a [punch-up](http://mosnews.com/news/2006/02/01/peacekeepers.shtml) with Russian soldiers after a road accident.

High politics and international relations

But, in the end, it all comes down to wider disputes. Saakashvili wants Georgia to be all but a part of Europe, Russia wants to keep it as a client state.

Georgia has always been among the most Westward-looking of the former Soviet states. Then in 2003 came the Rose Revolution, bringing in the Kremlin-baiting, West-loving [Mikheil Saakashvili](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikheil_Saakashvili), and the course was fixed. As with the separatist republics, Saakashvili has only been doing what most Georgian politicians also want – but he’s been pushing it a lot harder than they would dare.

His first foreign minister was not just (in what is perhaps a diplomatic first) the former French ambassador to Georgia, she was also Georgia’s first non-Russian-speaking foreign minister. Then there’s the new [oil pipeline](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4508633.stm) running through Georgia on its way from Azerbaijan to Turkey, cutting Russia out of the supply route. Or the [WTO membership](http://www.wto.org/English/news_e/pres00_e/pr182_e.htm) (something Russia hasn’t yet managed), the understandable [desperation to join NATO](http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&ct=res&cd=3&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.georgiafornato.ge%2FMain%2520Page.htm&ei=6UgrRf24EZao-gKZvaTxBA&sig=___ncS1NG5qd4wjMwej-10ORFLalE=&sig2=fCcyNdGnLaCLH8zbQBtdRw).

All this unnerves Russia, which needs Georgia as a client state. It’s not that Georgia is intrinsically all that valuable to Russia – but if this one gets away, it undermines Russia’s ability to browbeat the rest of the post-Soviet states. Putin is seeing his ‘near abroad’ crumble as hte ‘colour revolutions’ remove pro-Russian elites, and as the CIS (a loose political union of the former Soviet states) is replaced by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Central Asia, and [GUAM](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GUAM) further West.

So there you have it, from spheres of influence down to looking good on TV.

[incidentally, a lot of the articles I link above have been pulled out of a [useful del.icio.us collection](http://del.icio.us/nathanhamm/georgia%2Brussia?page=1) by Nathan Hamm of [Registan](http://www.registan.net). Even if Georgia isn’t his main focus, and he hasn’t blogged on the latest crisis, he still has a decent eye on what’s happening there. Go Nathan!]

Warning: cynicism ahead…

It seems that now Saakashvili has won his elections, he knows he can stop ratcheting up the rhetoric, and grovelingly [offer](http://izvestia.ru/politic/article3097366/) (RUS) to meet Putin anywhere for talks.

Back home, the

Industry will save Georgia

party are making a pretty futile shot at copying the imagery of the colour revolutions. Roses in hands, they held a march in protest at alleged election fraud last week – and would doubtless have been totally ignored, except that somebody decided to [take some potshots at them](http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=19604)

Oh, now this is getting silly…

Russian hosting company Garanthost is [closing down the accounts](http://blog.garanthost.ru/?p=12) (RUS) of Georgian customers, and refusing to serve Georgians.

Meanwhile on the other side of the fence, [Hostovik](http://www.hostovik.ru/gruzin.htm) is offering discount hosting for anybody who will display an “I am Georgian” logo on their site.

[via [webplanet](http://webplanet.ru/news/life/2006/10/09/gruzin.html) and [kbke](http://www.livejournal.com/users/kbke/)]

Everything going on in Russia these past few days is making me want to hit things.

Most of you have probably noticed that Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya was murdered on Saturday. There was no love lost between her and Putin (half the Russian conspiracy theorists think she was killed as a birthday present for Putin). Putin said nothing about her death until today, when he came out with this charming comment

“

There may have been any number of motives. Yes, this journalist was a sharp critic of the current Russian authorities. But I think that journalists should know, and experts perfectly understand, that her capacity to influence political life in Russia was extremely insignificant.

“She was well-known in journalist circles, in human rights circles, in the West. I repeat, her influence on the political life of the country was minimal.

”

Grr!

Meanwhile the persecution of Georgians in Russia is reaching tragicomin heights – now even the web hosts are getting involved. One,

Garanthost

. is closing down the accounts (RUS) of Georgian customers, and refusing to serve Georgians. And on the other side of the fence, Hostovik is offering discount hosting for anybody who will display an “I am Georgian” logo on their site.

No, I don’t know whether to laugh or cry either. I’m putting up more stuff about Russia and Georgia over at

the other place

.

Eep! The US is beginning a ‘major operation’ in Kirkuk. Not the kind of place you want Americans blindly wading in.

In Kirkuk, a volatile mixed city in the north, Iraqi and U.S.-led forces launched a major security operation, dubbed “the key to peace,” to root out members of al-Qaeda and other Sunni Arab insurgent groups. Authorities imposed a 6 p.m. curfew and announced the detention of 155 suspected insurgents. (Washington Post)

I hope they know what they’re doing; in particular I’d be worrying about the background of the Iraqi troops, the demographics of who they’re arresting, and generally how much they’re shaking things up

Another quick note on the persecution of Georgians in Russia.

One thing making it easy for the authorities to go after ethnic Georgians is that, like everbody else in Russia, most of them break the law in one way or another. It seems that almost everything is slightly illegal there – not illegal enough that you expect to get arrested for it, but enough that the police can go after you if they want to. So for example, they can inspect Georgian restaurants and find they all fail to meet some health requirement. Or they can audit the taxes of prominent Georgians, and find that they’re bending the rules. Because that’s what everybody does.

It’s just another spin on the old truth that the more laws you pass, the more corruption you get.

Wha? Russian blogs and media are reporting that Anna Politkovskaia has just been killed. She is – was – one of the most impressive campaigning journalists around, with some very brave investigations into Chechnya and into Russia under Putin.

Ah, the joy of Babelfish. It has got over its old habit of turning _Putin_ into _Fishings_, but has a great new trick of interpreting _Первый канал_ (Channel One) as “Pervy Channel”