Data, words, code
From [Anthony Cordesman’s latest paper](http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,3537/), via [Abu Aardvark](http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2006/10/cordesman_iraqi.html), a chart of violence in Iraq:
Spot the Askariyya mosque bombing.
Do you ever get the feeling of
this is where it’s at
? That’s what I’ve been feeling as I start following Russian livejournals more closely. Every time I look, I find another embryonic political or social movement, full of potential to change Russia – and being largely ignored by the outside world.
Take the debates. Run by the youth movement “[Democratic Alternative](http://www.daproject.ru/)(*)” Every few weeks in Moscow, some of the leading lights of Russian livejournal get together for a [public political debate](http://dadebatam.ru/). They’re judged by the audience, and by a panel of popular bloggers.
Their latest event was yesterday, pitting nationalist [Dmitri Rogozin](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Rogozin) against economic liberal [Boris Nemtsov](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Nemtsov). The debate was about Georgia, and Rogozin won, but the transcript of the debate hasn’t been posted yet.
Also, this blog doesn’t seem to like cyrillic much. I wonder if it’s Movable Type in general, or my setup, or what?
*: I’m not sure who funds them or what their background is, but they feel less astroturfed than most Russian ‘youth movements’
Since I’ve been reading so many Russian livejournals recently, I figured I should do something useful with it. So I’ve got involved in Global Voices, a blog translation project. The plan is that I’ll post occasional snippets from Russian blogs, once a month or so. Here’s my first post, translating a Georgian post about the treatment of Georgians in Russia.
If Russia decides to escalate the dispute with Georgia, one option is for it to recognize Abkhazia as an independent state. Abkhazia is [pushing](http://www.regnum.ru/english/722014.html) Russia to do just that.
What makes this a plausible scenario is Kosovo. From Russia’s perspective, the situation of Abkhazia within Georgia is parallel to that of Kosovo within Serbia: regions enjoying de facto autonomy within hostile states, and pushing for formal self-determination. In [Putin’s words](http://www.ft.com/cms/s/b55abaf4-dfc0-11da-afe4-0000779e2340.html):
“If someone believes that Kosovo should be granted full independence as a state, then why should we deny it to the Abkhaz and the South Ossetians?”
The implied ‘someone’ is the UN, where glacial negotiations are moving towards the recognition of Kosovo as an independent state. Russia is unlikely to let this through the UN without demanding a similar decision on Abkhazia. It might not even wait for Kosovo to come up at the UN – ten days ago, for instance, [Mikhail Gorbachev](http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/10/5b958386-975f-40ca-9824-90f0c1f1048f.html) wrote that the “
logic of international development may lead Russia to a situation in which we will have no other choice but to recognize Abkhazia
”
What I didn’t mention in the last post – because I didn’t believe it – was that Sanskrit isn’t the only course going. Cambridge is also
closing the Hindi department
. This is something like the fourth most widely-spoken language in the world, 400 million speakers (many more if you include urdu speakers, and speakers of hindi as a second language). How does nobody think it might be useful for somebody to be able to speak this language?
Ug. Is this true? No more undergraduate Sanskrit at Cambridge?
I just checked. There are over 200 undergraduates in the Classics department. But:
“Sanskrit manuscripts number roughly one hundred times those in Greek and Latin combined. In the exact sciences alone their number is greater than the total number of Greek and Latin manuscripts.” [source]
I’m not entirely convinced by those figures, but there are certainly an immense number of Sanskrit texts. Many (most?) have not been properly edited, let alone published or translated. Do people honestly believe that there is nothing of value in any of those?
Fuming…
I’m breaking off the Georgia blogging for howls of rage that my old university course is being shut down. Apparently, Cambridge university sees no value in teaching Sanskrit to undergraduates.
Right now, I feel like running into the streets and screaming at the imbecility of the world.
Interesting take on the
Lancet
figures from Marginal Revolution:
A very high deaths total, taken alone, suggests (but does not prove) that the Iraqis were ready to start killing each other in great numbers the minute Saddam went away. The stronger that propensity, the less contingent it was upon the U.S. invasion, and the more likely it would have happened anyway, sooner or later. In that scenario the war greatly accelerated deaths. But short of giving Iraq an eternal dictator, that genie was already in the bottle.
If the deaths are low at first but rising over time, it is more likely that a peaceful transition might have been possible, either through better postwar planning or by leaving Saddam in power and letting Iraqi events take some other course. That could make Bush policies look worse, not better. Tim Lambert, in one post, hints that the rate of change of deaths is an important variable but he does not develop this idea.
Russia has made a point of maintaining transport links to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, despite the blockade of Georgia. It’s something that Georgian politicians have complained bitterly about. Now they’re driving it home by sending a train to South Ossetia loaded with $741,000 of humanitarian aid. Behind this is Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov, who is even more energetic than Ken Livingstone in maintaining his own foreign policy agenda. Luzhkov calls the train “
a symbol of Russian assistance to South Ossetia, which wants to live independently and not to obey those, who have subjected these people to genocide,
”
This is a picture predicting how long it would take nature to take over again after the freak destruction of humanity (originally from the Times, but via boingboing).
The graphic isn’t actually all that astounding, but the idea is fascinating. If I had even the least amount of graphic-design mojo I’d love to make a poster on the same topic.
In other news, it’s very bad how much easier it is to go through your emails after a bottle of wine. Unanswered emails really shouldn’t be that frightening. Bills, I can accept – the not-quite-monthly ‘get drunk and write cheques’ is as close to a financial routine as I have – but emails going over to the dark side of things I hide from is bad news.
Now, off out to “50% depeche mode, 50% kraftwerk”, which is a fantastic goth(ish) club night.
Edit
: link should work now!