Category: Uncategorised

This probably won’t be as detailed as [yesterday](http://ohuiginn.net/mt/2009/04/georgia_protests_in_detail.html#comments)’s blogging, but I’ll try to keep an eye on what’s happening in Tbilisi today.

Friday 1300: Overnight, a [few hundred](http://twitter.com/CivilGe/status/1486048262) protesters maintained a vigil outside the parliament, [blocking](http://www.pr-inside.com/georgian-protest-stretches-into-second-r1175852.htm) the street there ((http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20700)). Saakashvili was [scheduled](http://twitter.com/govtofgeorgia/status/1489227970) to give a speech at 1200; he [refused to step down](http://en.rian.ru/world/20090410/121048791.html), and [called](http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE5390P320090410) for ‘dialogue and sharing responsibility’. [Extracts here](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20699). The opposition have [demanded](http://www.russiatoday.com/Top_News/2009-04-10/Countdown_for_Saakashvili_begins_.html) Saakashvili’s resignation before 1600.

1630: [Plans](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20704) to hold riots in more areas around Tbilisi. Saakashvili [proposes](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20702) direct election of mayor of Tbilisi. [Shevardnadze](http://news-en.trend.az/politics/foreign/1454067.html): “

constructive dialogue between the authorities and opposition is impossible

”

1900: [some leaders](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7993844.stm) call for civil disobedience . [More claims](http://twitter.com/dv0rsky/statuses/1490352230) of roads into Tbilisi being blocked. [Russia](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20683) increasing troop levels in Abkhazia? Gacheciladze, Burjanadze and others [repeat](http://civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20705) calls for Saakashvili to stand down

2000: The opposition groups seem to be splitting up, physically and tactically. At least Levan Gachicheladze and Kakha Kukava (Conservative) are calling for disobedience (without violence – they seem to mean blocking the roads) – see [Telegraph](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/georgia/5137060/Georgia-protesters-plan-disobedience-campaign.html), [Mosnews](http://www.mosnews.com/politics/2009/04/10/964/), [RIA-Novosti](http://en.rian.ru/world/20090410/121057277.html). Nino Burjanadze [wants](http://www.mosnews.com/politics/2009/04/10/964//lev) to debate Saakashvili live on television.

Sat 0100: Opposition plan [daily blockades](http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav041009c.shtml) outside parliament, the presidential residence and the public broadcaster, 3-9 pm. Seeming difference between the protest leaders: Irakli Alasania (former UN ambassador, most popular of the protest leaders) and Nino Burjanadze are calling for dialogue, Levan Gacheciladze and Salome Zourabichvili focus on direct action.

Summary of Thursday: ~50,000 people on almost entirely peaceful protests ([GIPA](http://caucasusreports.wordpress.com/2009/04/10/april-9-protests-the-day-after-coverage/) and [RFE/RL](http://www.rferl.org/content/Youth_Activist_Severely_Beaten_During_Georgia_Protests/1606145.html) [report](http://caucasusreports.wordpress.com/2009/04/10/3-activists-beaten-by-masked-men/) some exceptions). ‘Wu Wei’ [writes](http://kosmyryk.typepad.com/wu_wei/2009/04/april-9-demonstration-tbilisi.html):

>Our local staff came in this morning with reports that the Opposition was really badly funded compared with previously (from Patarkatsishvili), whereas the Government was really well organised. The Opposition had only paper banners, no free food was provided to keep people there, whereas the government had rounded up a load of taxis and paid them to take people away.

On that [debate](http://ohuiginn.net/mt/2009/04/character_assassination.html) about China returning to traditional characters: [Xinhua says no](http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-04/09/content_11157349.htm). And goes further:

>For the first time in nearly 20 years, China will issue a modified list of simplified Chinese characters in an effort to further standardize a language used by billions around the world.

“Only 53% of American adults believe capitalism is better than socialism.”(source)

Also: “Adults under 30 are essentially evenly divided: 37% prefer capitalism, 33% socialism, and 30% are undecided”

Unrelatedly, Jenny Holzer is on twitter – perhaps the one celebrity who should be. [don’t know who Jenny Holzer is? Read her inflammatory essays]. Now we just need to get Abdal-Hakim Murad on there too, and the thing starts to have a purpose.

I’ve spent Far Too Long (TM)

following

today’s protests in Georgia. Don’t laugh, it’s a longstanding obsession, caused largely by the fact that Georgia is small enough that it is possible to follow most of the english-language news there, but with a tendency towards the utterly batshit insane which could make even a hardened diplomat giggle, Plus, it’s somewhere I’d love to live, if I thought I had any chance of learning the language (I don’t. It makes Hungarian look simple).

Anyway, this has helped me finally get a handle on Twitter (where I am perspectivelute. Blame Rudolf II). Once I started thinking of it as an inferior version of irc, it started to make sense. I still don’t like it, but I can’t really criticise twitter and still bemoan the lack of twitter irc channes, can I?

If anybody knows a decent political IRC channel, let me know. Please. Or maybe I should create one…

For those of you not paying attention: in the past few days, Moldova has had massive protests. Some of the protesters (who are mostly young and pro-western, with all that implies) have been communicating via twitter. This is immensely exciting to a certain kind of pundit, who turned this into the main feature of the protests. The Georgian government noticed this, and very slickly started up their own twitter account yesterday. [The Georgian government are unbelievably slick when it comes to playing up to the Western media. I guess it’s because they’re all very young, and educated in the US. Still, compared to any other government on the planet, they’re stunning]. A couple of Georgians and a slightly larger handful of interested outsiders pile on, and we more-or-less manage to pick over the news. i.e. exacly what would happen in irc, but with a hideous interface.

Anyway, upshot of the protests: ~50,000 people, no violence, no passers-by beaten before dying, no likelihood of the government toppling, come back tomorrow for the smaller, angrier version.

Tagged


georgia

I don’t see anybody else doing a blow-by-blow account of the demonstrations in Tbilisi, so let me take a shot at it. Not sure how it’ll work out (or whether I’ll have the time/ability to stay on top of what’s happening):

Afternoon

. The main demonstration has been pushed back an hour, 3pm rather than 2 (@zhvania). Protesters [move](http://twitter.com/govtofgeorgia/status/1482617453) from Avlabari metro to the parliament square, where riot police [take up positions](http://twitter.com/lingelien/statuses/1482658659). 15 EU/international govt. representatives [monitoring events](http://twitter.com/govtofgeorgia/status/1482856055) from Ministry of Internal Affairs’ Situation Room, where there is [CCTV coverage](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20677) of “all the main thoroughfares”.

At the rally, [Burjanadze](http://news-en.trend.az/politics/foreign/1453643.html) ‘asked pardon that she was in power and could not protect population from tyranny’. [@zhvania](http://twitter.com/zhvania) reports that the crowds didn’t like [Nino Burjanadze](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nino_Burjanadze)’s speech, and that [Gia Miasashvili](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giorgi_Maisashvili) called for changing the Georgian flag. “Eka Beselia, leader of the Movement for United Georgia party, called for acts of civil disobedience” ([source](http://caucasusreports.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/speeches-besalia-calls-for-civil-disodience/)) At the end of the main protests, the organizers [moved](http://ketevan22.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/protesters-meet-public-broadcaster/) to the public broadcaster, complaining at the lack of live coverage. There, members of the Conservative Party, including Bezhan Gunava, [attempted](http://caucasusreports.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/unrest-at-georgia-public-broadcasting/) to break through a police line.

According to the [Deputy Interior Minister](http://www.police.ge/en/curview.aspx?newsid=32805&categoryid=1), the demonstrations were peaceful, there were no arrests, and the international observers were happy.

There was a [2000-strong demonstration in Batumi](http://www.rferl.org/content/Tbilisi_Rally_Swells_But_Falls_Short_Of_Opposition_Hopes/1605668.html), [led](http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-04/09/content_11159620.htm) by Zurab Nogaideli, and [another in Poti](http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10997&Itemid=133)

They also [agreed](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20690) to wait 24 hours before further action – supposedly to give the government a chance to respond.


Morning/day before

: Democratic Movement – United Georgia [claim](http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2009/04/20094992041682914.html) 60 activists arrested in Rustavi – [denied by government](http://police.ge/en/curview.aspx?newsid=32804&categoryid=1) Government, opposition [jointly commemorate](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20687) events on this day in 1989, when Soviet troops attacked demonstrators in Tbilisi, killing 20. [Claims](http://news-en.trend.az/politics/foreign/1453462.html) that the road into Tbilisi has been blocked aren’t true, says [government](http://twitter.com/govtofgeorgia/statuses/1482187143) and one [journalist](http://twitter.com/fieldreports/statuses/1482131852). Russia possibly [increasing troop levels](http://www.rferl.org/content/Russian_Troops_Entering_Abkhazias_Gali_Region_/1604998.html) in Abkhazia, with the protests as distraction. [Protest performance art](http://giorgipxacho.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/protester-profiles-artists-intellectuals-protest-in-advance-of-april-9th/) “Fighting for one chair”

How many demonstrators?

• 
  Compare these estimates to the 15,000 who protested in late 2007, or to the 100-150,000 hoped for by the organizers
  
• Mosnews: “At 1:50, the number of participants was estimated at between 15,000 and 30,000″
• RIA-Novosti: “Reporters in Tbilisi estimate that a total of 100,000 people have so far joined the rally,” (at 1533 local time)
• Hotnews citing AFP: “At least 50,000 people”
• Georgian govt. twitter: “crowd estimate from press reports vary between 20,000 to 40,000″
• Le Monde: at least 50,000 outside Parliament by 1400 local time
• Civil.ge: “Opposition leaders said over 100,000 people were gathered; but number of people gathered outside the Parliament is lower at about 3:30pm.”
• Radio Netherlands (of all places): “more than 60,000 people”
• Reuters initially reported 40,000, now upgraded to 60,000
• Trend news: ‘over 30,000′
• An assortment of claims
• Georgian Daily: “More than 100,000″
• Xinhua ” About 120,000 people”
• 
  These numbers may not match what is now on the linked pages; estimates are constantly being revised. They were accurate when I made each link
  
• Civil.ge: according to deputy interior minister “police estimated around 25,000 protesters at the rally – the number, however, was higher than the official figure, but less than opposition’s estimation of over 100,000.”

Statements

: Former president Shevardnadze: “there will be problems during the demonstration” (@zhvania). Interior minister [Vano Merabishvili](): “

“There is no chance of a revolution in Georgia… but my mood tells me there will not be violence

” .[Patriarch](http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i_V-7z_ktt1ky6SaiTA42wCx6qpg) of the Georgian Orthodox Church: “

I appeal to the Georgian army not to use force under any circumstances

“. USA [State Department](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20685): “

Peaceful protests are an important part of any democracy and an integral and acceptable way to express political views…The United States stands ready to sustain and deepen its support for… reforms

“. [Salome Zurabishvili](http://www.rferl.org/content/Georgian_Opposition_Vows_To_Protest_As_Long_As_Needed_Until_President_Resigns/1604901.html): “

it is the final test for the nation, and [everything] depends on the extent to which we are able to stand there calmly, prudently, and to the end

“. EU presidency calls for “[maximum restraint](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20674)”; diplomats in Georgia for “[open dialogue](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20676)”


Blogs

: [Global Voices](http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/04/09/georgia-opposition-protests-2/) is summarizing. [Ketevan22](http://ketevan22.wordpress.com/) has some recent updates. A [photo-essay](http://alanaga.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/april-9-2009/)


World media coverage

: [New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/10/world/europe/10georgia.html?ref=global-home), [Guardian](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/09/georgia-protests-mikheil-saakashvili), [Le Monde](http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2009/04/09/l-opposition-georgienne-dans-les-rues-de-tbilissi_1178592_3214.html), [Financial Times](http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/50b97e2a-24f8-11de-8a66-00144feabdc0.html), [BBC](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7991026.stm). [Stratfor](http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090408_georgia_revolution_simmering)’s analysis is surprisingly good, although it over-emphasises Russia.

[German coverage](http://georgien.blogspot.com/2009/04/nachrichten-georgien-zehntausende.html): Focus, Spiegel, DW, sueddeutsche

Here’s a rough online reading-list, of places to follow whatever happens in Georgia in the next few days

News

• Eurasianet
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
• Civil.ge
• Georgia Today
• Georgian Daily
• Institute for War and Peace Reporting
• Google News
• Georgian TV streams: Maestro, Rustavi-2
• Russian and Western sources: RIA Novosti, ITAR-TASS, New York Times
• Russian-language: Yandex, Livejournal

Blogs

There aren’t so many English-language blogs in Georgia: [Tbilisi Calling](http://caucasusreports.blogspot.com/) and the newish [Tbilisi Blues](http://tbilisiblues.blogspot.com/) are worth mentioning, though.

There is also a very promising project by journalism students at the Georgian School of Public Affairs, who are [covering](http://caucasusreports.wordpress.com/) the protests. See particularly the blogs by [Sherqqizi](http://sherqqizi.wordpress.com/), [Salome Kasradze](http://sakos.wordpress.com/), [Vusula Alibayli](http://alibayli.wordpress.com/) and [Ketevan Vashagashvili](http://ketevan22.wordpress.com/about/). So far these only have a couple of posts each, but the quality is pretty good.

[Global Voices](http://globalvoicesonline.org/-/world/central-asia-caucasus/georgia/) and [Registan](http://registan.net) are useful when they cover Georgia, which is not all that often. [Here](http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/04/09/georgia-opposition-protests-2/) is the Global Voices roundup

[@zhvania] lists [some](http://www.forum.ge/), [of](http://forum.internet.ge/) the [forums](http://www.topix.com/forum/ge/tbilisi) with discussion of the demonstrations.


No sign of much on Twitter so far, despite the tweeting from Moldova



Edit

: Georgian twitter has, in fact, suddenly got going in the past day or so. #tbilisi seems to be the most common hashtag. @dv0rsky, @anano are in Georgia, @lingelien and @zhvania from outside. there’s @govtofgeorgia for the official line and @civilge for news. [all in English; there is a little Georgian-language action too]

Background and analysis

• International Crisis Group
• World Bank
• Human Rights Watch
• UNHCR

Obviously, I’m following today’s [protests in Georgia](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7991026.stm) with interest. Not being there, it’s hard to get a feeling for what’s going on. I have no answers, but here are some of the questions forming in my head:

Is the country behind the protesters?

Most of the reporting I’ve seen concentrates on the political elites: the opposition leaders themselves, their key supporters, and the wonkish community of diplomats, NGO workers and the like. It’s hard to tell how much resonance their demands have with the rest of the country. naturally, they can demonstrate this by bringing a lot of people onto the streets.

Do they want the country?

Look at the demands. More power for the judiciary, respect for private property, a moderate line on Russia. Will Georgians support this? Sure, many will. But where is the talk about jobs, pensions, the cost of living – the kind of things you would raise to build a mass movement? Rather, the demands seem perfectly tuned to appeal to the world outside Georgia – the governments, the NGOs, the military concerned after last year’s war.

What about the world?

So, if the opposition care about outside support, will they be getting it? Here, they’re doing a decen job. [Salome Zourabichvili’s op-ed](http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/04/opinion/04iht-edzourabichvili.html?_r=2) in the New York Times last week lays out the stall for the American policy community. Nino Burjanadze was last year already doing the rounds of Washington wonks. Now the US is being [very supportive](http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10970&Itemid=133) of the demonstrators.

Politics, or Geopolitics?

The question of whether the demonstrators are counting on internal or external support can be rephrased: does politics matter? I usually believe it does. The balance of power in Tbilisi right now, for instance, depends very much on the peopel involved. But there’s an altenative, geopolitical take on this in which Georgia is just a pawn on the grand chessboard of power politics. So the US and Europe want Saakashvili out because he is likely to weaken Georgia – and hence American influence – by giving Russia an excuse to invade. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (briefly shut down by Russia during last year’s war) would doubtless also come into play. Personally, I don’t buy it. Foreign

acceptance

of the possibility of a putsch is crucial – had the US hinted it would step in and defend the elected Georgian government, Saakashvili would be sleeping easier. But foreign pressure to overthrow the government? I don’t think any major power, Russia aside, cares enough about Georgia to dabble like that.

What about Moldova?

[Nathan](http://www.registan.net/index.php/2009/04/08/manna-from-the-blogosphere/) writes that “

the interesting question will be how and whether events in Chisinau shape those in Tbilisi

“. Which is a

very

interesting question. Superficially, they’re both quite inward-looking protests. For instance, I don’t think either of them have much connection to the financial crisis. It’s tempting to fit them into a narrative of ex-Soviet modernisers unhappy with losing elections. Surely some of the demonstrators and parts of the media will put things in those terms. I don’t think it would be true — but truth isn’t what matters, at times like these.


More of this to follow later in the day, if time allows

Travel now fixed: I’ll be back in the UK again May 13-18. Other than sashagoblin‘s birthday on the Friday, my plans are pretty empty (Bifest is on the Saturday, which I am considering). As always, suggestions gratefully received.

I’ll then be spending 2 days in Dublin, largely because the flights ended up cheaper that way.

In other news, it’s perhaps a little unfair that the police are being called murderers for shoving Ian Tomlinson around just before he died – but in the context of police being apparently pretty rough with protesters, who can be surprised that somebody ends up seriously hurt.

Meanwhile there’s a big protest in Moldova, which is some confusing overlay of youth/age, pro/anti-Romania, and internationalist/nationalist, plus poverty, anger at a fair(ish) election won by an obnoxious government, and a decent dollop of geopolitics. In Georgia, the opposition are about to try and bring down the government, with a decent chance of success. And in France, universities are two months into a strike (longest since ’68), but nobody seems to have noticed. Interesting times.

The London G20 protests, if they achieved nothing else, have certainly radicalised a lot of people. Or at least, have made them distrust and dislike the police.

Now there’s a (http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/apr/07/video-g20-police-assault), showing Ian Tomlinson being attacked by police just before he died.

No, the police probably didn’t plan to murder him. They did beat him (more severely than is shown in the video, according to eyewitnesses), and fail to help him. And after his death they tried to conceal what happened.

The fact that he died is the only bit of chance here. Everything else was a deliberate strategy, chosen by the police. And many people will be looking differently at the police – if not because of this, then because of kettling. Keep people trapped on a street for hours on end, and they won’t like you for it.

The [Guardian](http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/libertycentral/2009/apr/07/civil-liberties-g20-police-assault-ian-tomlinson?commentpage=4&commentposted=1) also pick up on the media response, so far:

Although the Guardian reported the death on its front page, almost all the coverage elsewhere ignored it completely or concentrated on a version of events that suggested that the police’s only connection with Tomlinson had been to try to rescue him from a baying mob of anarchists.

Now, the video has got the story more [mainstream](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/5121597/G20-protests-death-Ian-Tomlinson-shoved-to-ground-by-police-officer-video-shows.html) [attention](http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article6054713.ece), and even the [Mail](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1168315/Caught-camera-The-moment-G20-bystander-flung-ground-police.html) is criticising the police. Strangest of all, I find myself agreeing with many of the comments on the Mail article.

I’ve never got into the habit of blogging about things I’m working on – largely because they tend not to have a public face, and/or to be confidential in some way.

[Here](http://scavngr.com/) is an exception. It’s a scavenger hunt, built by the folks at [edgecentric](http://www.edgecentric.com/), with a chunk of my code somewhere in its bowels:

This is our version of a web-managed Scavenger Hunt. Sure you’ve seen lists to go after, but never before have you competed live against other players from around the world! If you are having difficulty with what a Scavenger Hunt is we suggest you read the entry at Wikipedia.

In our version, we send you a text message to your phone with the current item to ‘hunt’. Once you get your message – you go off an get the best picture of the item. When you have your shot, you then email it to us!

Once we receive your image we’ll put it in the ranking system and everyone will start scoring its quality against other contributions.

Unfortunately it’s US-based, and I’m not, so I haven’t been able to try it out (alienated labour, huh?). Still, nice to know it’s out there.