Month: April 2009

Tyler Cowen, of [Marginal Revolution](http://www.marginalrevolution.com/) has an [excellent article](http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=wq.essay&essay_id=517090) arguing that the United States, despite being the epicentre of the financial crisis, will probably survive it better than many other countries:

>Its size is one reason why the United States has such a robust polity and economy. In bad times, international cooperation tends to break down, which increases the relative influence of larger economic and political units. Smaller countries, such as Belgium, are generally more dependent on international trade than the United States. And in truly dire situations, military power counts for more—and the United States accounts for almost half of the world’s defense spending.

Going by these reasons (Tyler has others which don’t apply), you might think Russia is also in a good position. Small CIS countries which had gambled on free markets — Georgia, Estonia — will end up in hard times as falling demand cuts them off from foreign markets, while the Russian military has not lost its ability to dominate them. Russia, its stock market relatively insignificant, is also insulated from the financial downturn, except insofar as it affects energy prices. Hardline Russia-fearers such as [Edward “New Cold War” Lucas](http://edwardlucas.blogspot.com/) will still be able to terrify us with tales of Kremlin power-games in the coming years.

I generally buy that narrative. But in the other side of the balance is the hint that [Russia will continue to be a whipping-boy](http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav040809a.shtml) for its neighbours:

>As its economy sinks and social tensions portend a summer of discontent, several mass media outlets in Tajikistan are busy identifying culprits for the Central Asian nation’s problems. By all appearances, the chief scapegoat is shaping up to be Russia. Local newspapers recently have blamed the Kremlin for everything from stoking the 1992-97 civil war in Tajikistan to drug trafficking, economic woes and even a possible future coup d’etat

I wouldn’t suggest this as marking a larger trend, given that Europe and the EU are equally plausible scapegoats for Central Asia. But if economic hardship encourages xenophobia (and it often does) then the easiest targets are expatriate workers. In Central Asia, that mainly means Russians, and to a lesser extent Chinese. They could well find themselves in awkward position, even if Russia turns out to be, like the US, a ‘counter-cyclical asset’.

I’ve just noticed the main section headings at the top of the Guardian website:

    * UK
    * World
    * United States
    ...

yes, the US gets its own section rather than being crammed in with the rest of the ‘world’. There’s no separate top-level section for Europe.

I wonder if it’s because they get a lot of USian readers online, or because nobody has yet managed to get the British interested in Europe.

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Tagged


angst

,

zoe

On that [debate](http://ohuiginn.net/mt/2009/04/character_assassination.html) about China returning to traditional characters: [Xinhua says no](http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-04/09/content_11157349.htm). And goes further:

>For the first time in nearly 20 years, China will issue a modified list of simplified Chinese characters in an effort to further standardize a language used by billions around the world.

This probably won’t be as detailed as [yesterday](http://ohuiginn.net/mt/2009/04/georgia_protests_in_detail.html#comments)’s blogging, but I’ll try to keep an eye on what’s happening in Tbilisi today.

Friday 1300: Overnight, a [few hundred](http://twitter.com/CivilGe/status/1486048262) protesters maintained a vigil outside the parliament, [blocking](http://www.pr-inside.com/georgian-protest-stretches-into-second-r1175852.htm) the street there ((http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20700)). Saakashvili was [scheduled](http://twitter.com/govtofgeorgia/status/1489227970) to give a speech at 1200; he [refused to step down](http://en.rian.ru/world/20090410/121048791.html), and [called](http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE5390P320090410) for ‘dialogue and sharing responsibility’. [Extracts here](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20699). The opposition have [demanded](http://www.russiatoday.com/Top_News/2009-04-10/Countdown_for_Saakashvili_begins_.html) Saakashvili’s resignation before 1600.

1630: [Plans](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20704) to hold riots in more areas around Tbilisi. Saakashvili [proposes](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20702) direct election of mayor of Tbilisi. [Shevardnadze](http://news-en.trend.az/politics/foreign/1454067.html): “

constructive dialogue between the authorities and opposition is impossible

”

1900: [some leaders](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7993844.stm) call for civil disobedience . [More claims](http://twitter.com/dv0rsky/statuses/1490352230) of roads into Tbilisi being blocked. [Russia](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20683) increasing troop levels in Abkhazia? Gacheciladze, Burjanadze and others [repeat](http://civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20705) calls for Saakashvili to stand down

2000: The opposition groups seem to be splitting up, physically and tactically. At least Levan Gachicheladze and Kakha Kukava (Conservative) are calling for disobedience (without violence – they seem to mean blocking the roads) – see [Telegraph](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/georgia/5137060/Georgia-protesters-plan-disobedience-campaign.html), [Mosnews](http://www.mosnews.com/politics/2009/04/10/964/), [RIA-Novosti](http://en.rian.ru/world/20090410/121057277.html). Nino Burjanadze [wants](http://www.mosnews.com/politics/2009/04/10/964//lev) to debate Saakashvili live on television.

Sat 0100: Opposition plan [daily blockades](http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav041009c.shtml) outside parliament, the presidential residence and the public broadcaster, 3-9 pm. Seeming difference between the protest leaders: Irakli Alasania (former UN ambassador, most popular of the protest leaders) and Nino Burjanadze are calling for dialogue, Levan Gacheciladze and Salome Zourabichvili focus on direct action.

Summary of Thursday: ~50,000 people on almost entirely peaceful protests ([GIPA](http://caucasusreports.wordpress.com/2009/04/10/april-9-protests-the-day-after-coverage/) and [RFE/RL](http://www.rferl.org/content/Youth_Activist_Severely_Beaten_During_Georgia_Protests/1606145.html) [report](http://caucasusreports.wordpress.com/2009/04/10/3-activists-beaten-by-masked-men/) some exceptions). ‘Wu Wei’ [writes](http://kosmyryk.typepad.com/wu_wei/2009/04/april-9-demonstration-tbilisi.html):

>Our local staff came in this morning with reports that the Opposition was really badly funded compared with previously (from Patarkatsishvili), whereas the Government was really well organised. The Opposition had only paper banners, no free food was provided to keep people there, whereas the government had rounded up a load of taxis and paid them to take people away.

Sarkozy is feeling [helpless]() about the current French fad of workers holding their bosses hostage as part of protests:

>”What’s this about holding people captive? We have the rule of law in this country. I will not let such things happen,” Sarkozy told a group of entrepreneurs on Tuesday.

>The same day, workers at a British-owned plant detained four managers, including three Britons, and held them overnight.

This is the same Sarkozy who first gained national attention by personally wading in to rescue hostages. Perhaps he should put together a personal SWAT team and embark on a ‘save capitalists’ tour of the country.

Apparently 45% of the French consider kidnapping an acceptable tactic in workers’ disputes. I kind of agree, as long as it’s on the level of ‘inconvenience the boss for a couple of days’, rather than ‘lock somebody in a cell for years, and demand ransom’. But perhaps I should learn to keep my petulant side in check.

“Only 53% of American adults believe capitalism is better than socialism.”(source)

Also: “Adults under 30 are essentially evenly divided: 37% prefer capitalism, 33% socialism, and 30% are undecided”

Unrelatedly, Jenny Holzer is on twitter – perhaps the one celebrity who should be. [don’t know who Jenny Holzer is? Read her inflammatory essays]. Now we just need to get Abdal-Hakim Murad on there too, and the thing starts to have a purpose.

Obviously, I’m following today’s [protests in Georgia](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7991026.stm) with interest. Not being there, it’s hard to get a feeling for what’s going on. I have no answers, but here are some of the questions forming in my head:

Is the country behind the protesters?

Most of the reporting I’ve seen concentrates on the political elites: the opposition leaders themselves, their key supporters, and the wonkish community of diplomats, NGO workers and the like. It’s hard to tell how much resonance their demands have with the rest of the country. naturally, they can demonstrate this by bringing a lot of people onto the streets.

Do they want the country?

Look at the demands. More power for the judiciary, respect for private property, a moderate line on Russia. Will Georgians support this? Sure, many will. But where is the talk about jobs, pensions, the cost of living – the kind of things you would raise to build a mass movement? Rather, the demands seem perfectly tuned to appeal to the world outside Georgia – the governments, the NGOs, the military concerned after last year’s war.

What about the world?

So, if the opposition care about outside support, will they be getting it? Here, they’re doing a decen job. [Salome Zourabichvili’s op-ed](http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/04/opinion/04iht-edzourabichvili.html?_r=2) in the New York Times last week lays out the stall for the American policy community. Nino Burjanadze was last year already doing the rounds of Washington wonks. Now the US is being [very supportive](http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10970&Itemid=133) of the demonstrators.

Politics, or Geopolitics?

The question of whether the demonstrators are counting on internal or external support can be rephrased: does politics matter? I usually believe it does. The balance of power in Tbilisi right now, for instance, depends very much on the peopel involved. But there’s an altenative, geopolitical take on this in which Georgia is just a pawn on the grand chessboard of power politics. So the US and Europe want Saakashvili out because he is likely to weaken Georgia – and hence American influence – by giving Russia an excuse to invade. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (briefly shut down by Russia during last year’s war) would doubtless also come into play. Personally, I don’t buy it. Foreign

acceptance

of the possibility of a putsch is crucial – had the US hinted it would step in and defend the elected Georgian government, Saakashvili would be sleeping easier. But foreign pressure to overthrow the government? I don’t think any major power, Russia aside, cares enough about Georgia to dabble like that.

What about Moldova?

[Nathan](http://www.registan.net/index.php/2009/04/08/manna-from-the-blogosphere/) writes that “

the interesting question will be how and whether events in Chisinau shape those in Tbilisi

“. Which is a

very

interesting question. Superficially, they’re both quite inward-looking protests. For instance, I don’t think either of them have much connection to the financial crisis. It’s tempting to fit them into a narrative of ex-Soviet modernisers unhappy with losing elections. Surely some of the demonstrators and parts of the media will put things in those terms. I don’t think it would be true — but truth isn’t what matters, at times like these.


More of this to follow later in the day, if time allows

Here’s a rough online reading-list, of places to follow whatever happens in Georgia in the next few days

News

• Eurasianet
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
• Civil.ge
• Georgia Today
• Georgian Daily
• Institute for War and Peace Reporting
• Google News
• Georgian TV streams: Maestro, Rustavi-2
• Russian and Western sources: RIA Novosti, ITAR-TASS, New York Times
• Russian-language: Yandex, Livejournal

Blogs

There aren’t so many English-language blogs in Georgia: [Tbilisi Calling](http://caucasusreports.blogspot.com/) and the newish [Tbilisi Blues](http://tbilisiblues.blogspot.com/) are worth mentioning, though.

There is also a very promising project by journalism students at the Georgian School of Public Affairs, who are [covering](http://caucasusreports.wordpress.com/) the protests. See particularly the blogs by [Sherqqizi](http://sherqqizi.wordpress.com/), [Salome Kasradze](http://sakos.wordpress.com/), [Vusula Alibayli](http://alibayli.wordpress.com/) and [Ketevan Vashagashvili](http://ketevan22.wordpress.com/about/). So far these only have a couple of posts each, but the quality is pretty good.

[Global Voices](http://globalvoicesonline.org/-/world/central-asia-caucasus/georgia/) and [Registan](http://registan.net) are useful when they cover Georgia, which is not all that often. [Here](http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/04/09/georgia-opposition-protests-2/) is the Global Voices roundup

[@zhvania] lists [some](http://www.forum.ge/), [of](http://forum.internet.ge/) the [forums](http://www.topix.com/forum/ge/tbilisi) with discussion of the demonstrations.


No sign of much on Twitter so far, despite the tweeting from Moldova



Edit

: Georgian twitter has, in fact, suddenly got going in the past day or so. #tbilisi seems to be the most common hashtag. @dv0rsky, @anano are in Georgia, @lingelien and @zhvania from outside. there’s @govtofgeorgia for the official line and @civilge for news. [all in English; there is a little Georgian-language action too]

Background and analysis

• International Crisis Group
• World Bank
• Human Rights Watch
• UNHCR

I don’t see anybody else doing a blow-by-blow account of the demonstrations in Tbilisi, so let me take a shot at it. Not sure how it’ll work out (or whether I’ll have the time/ability to stay on top of what’s happening):

Afternoon

. The main demonstration has been pushed back an hour, 3pm rather than 2 (@zhvania). Protesters [move](http://twitter.com/govtofgeorgia/status/1482617453) from Avlabari metro to the parliament square, where riot police [take up positions](http://twitter.com/lingelien/statuses/1482658659). 15 EU/international govt. representatives [monitoring events](http://twitter.com/govtofgeorgia/status/1482856055) from Ministry of Internal Affairs’ Situation Room, where there is [CCTV coverage](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20677) of “all the main thoroughfares”.

At the rally, [Burjanadze](http://news-en.trend.az/politics/foreign/1453643.html) ‘asked pardon that she was in power and could not protect population from tyranny’. [@zhvania](http://twitter.com/zhvania) reports that the crowds didn’t like [Nino Burjanadze](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nino_Burjanadze)’s speech, and that [Gia Miasashvili](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giorgi_Maisashvili) called for changing the Georgian flag. “Eka Beselia, leader of the Movement for United Georgia party, called for acts of civil disobedience” ([source](http://caucasusreports.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/speeches-besalia-calls-for-civil-disodience/)) At the end of the main protests, the organizers [moved](http://ketevan22.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/protesters-meet-public-broadcaster/) to the public broadcaster, complaining at the lack of live coverage. There, members of the Conservative Party, including Bezhan Gunava, [attempted](http://caucasusreports.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/unrest-at-georgia-public-broadcasting/) to break through a police line.

According to the [Deputy Interior Minister](http://www.police.ge/en/curview.aspx?newsid=32805&categoryid=1), the demonstrations were peaceful, there were no arrests, and the international observers were happy.

There was a [2000-strong demonstration in Batumi](http://www.rferl.org/content/Tbilisi_Rally_Swells_But_Falls_Short_Of_Opposition_Hopes/1605668.html), [led](http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-04/09/content_11159620.htm) by Zurab Nogaideli, and [another in Poti](http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10997&Itemid=133)

They also [agreed](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20690) to wait 24 hours before further action – supposedly to give the government a chance to respond.


Morning/day before

: Democratic Movement – United Georgia [claim](http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2009/04/20094992041682914.html) 60 activists arrested in Rustavi – [denied by government](http://police.ge/en/curview.aspx?newsid=32804&categoryid=1) Government, opposition [jointly commemorate](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20687) events on this day in 1989, when Soviet troops attacked demonstrators in Tbilisi, killing 20. [Claims](http://news-en.trend.az/politics/foreign/1453462.html) that the road into Tbilisi has been blocked aren’t true, says [government](http://twitter.com/govtofgeorgia/statuses/1482187143) and one [journalist](http://twitter.com/fieldreports/statuses/1482131852). Russia possibly [increasing troop levels](http://www.rferl.org/content/Russian_Troops_Entering_Abkhazias_Gali_Region_/1604998.html) in Abkhazia, with the protests as distraction. [Protest performance art](http://giorgipxacho.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/protester-profiles-artists-intellectuals-protest-in-advance-of-april-9th/) “Fighting for one chair”

How many demonstrators?

• 
  Compare these estimates to the 15,000 who protested in late 2007, or to the 100-150,000 hoped for by the organizers
  
• Mosnews: “At 1:50, the number of participants was estimated at between 15,000 and 30,000″
• RIA-Novosti: “Reporters in Tbilisi estimate that a total of 100,000 people have so far joined the rally,” (at 1533 local time)
• Hotnews citing AFP: “At least 50,000 people”
• Georgian govt. twitter: “crowd estimate from press reports vary between 20,000 to 40,000″
• Le Monde: at least 50,000 outside Parliament by 1400 local time
• Civil.ge: “Opposition leaders said over 100,000 people were gathered; but number of people gathered outside the Parliament is lower at about 3:30pm.”
• Radio Netherlands (of all places): “more than 60,000 people”
• Reuters initially reported 40,000, now upgraded to 60,000
• Trend news: ‘over 30,000′
• An assortment of claims
• Georgian Daily: “More than 100,000″
• Xinhua ” About 120,000 people”
• 
  These numbers may not match what is now on the linked pages; estimates are constantly being revised. They were accurate when I made each link
  
• Civil.ge: according to deputy interior minister “police estimated around 25,000 protesters at the rally – the number, however, was higher than the official figure, but less than opposition’s estimation of over 100,000.”

Statements

: Former president Shevardnadze: “there will be problems during the demonstration” (@zhvania). Interior minister [Vano Merabishvili](): “

“There is no chance of a revolution in Georgia… but my mood tells me there will not be violence

” .[Patriarch](http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i_V-7z_ktt1ky6SaiTA42wCx6qpg) of the Georgian Orthodox Church: “

I appeal to the Georgian army not to use force under any circumstances

“. USA [State Department](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20685): “

Peaceful protests are an important part of any democracy and an integral and acceptable way to express political views…The United States stands ready to sustain and deepen its support for… reforms

“. [Salome Zurabishvili](http://www.rferl.org/content/Georgian_Opposition_Vows_To_Protest_As_Long_As_Needed_Until_President_Resigns/1604901.html): “

it is the final test for the nation, and [everything] depends on the extent to which we are able to stand there calmly, prudently, and to the end

“. EU presidency calls for “[maximum restraint](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20674)”; diplomats in Georgia for “[open dialogue](http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=20676)”


Blogs

: [Global Voices](http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/04/09/georgia-opposition-protests-2/) is summarizing. [Ketevan22](http://ketevan22.wordpress.com/) has some recent updates. A [photo-essay](http://alanaga.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/april-9-2009/)


World media coverage

: [New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/10/world/europe/10georgia.html?ref=global-home), [Guardian](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/09/georgia-protests-mikheil-saakashvili), [Le Monde](http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2009/04/09/l-opposition-georgienne-dans-les-rues-de-tbilissi_1178592_3214.html), [Financial Times](http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/50b97e2a-24f8-11de-8a66-00144feabdc0.html), [BBC](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7991026.stm). [Stratfor](http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090408_georgia_revolution_simmering)’s analysis is surprisingly good, although it over-emphasises Russia.

[German coverage](http://georgien.blogspot.com/2009/04/nachrichten-georgien-zehntausende.html): Focus, Spiegel, DW, sueddeutsche